Why Colombia is Still Not Green

Last Sunday Colombians elected a new president: incumbent-party candidate Juan Manual Santos. Santos was elected in a runoff election against Antanas Mockus (opposition Green Party), after neither was able to secure the presidency in the first round on May 30th. Prior to that first election, however, most people believed that Santos and Mockus had approximately equal chances of winning the presidency. In the last revealed poll before the election, the level of support for Santos and Mockus was 34% and 32%, respectively. However, once the votes were counted after the first round it became clear that Santos had a significant advantage (46.7% to Mockus's 21.5%). By the second round, to no one’s surprise, Santos easily secured the presidency with 69% of the votes. How was Santos able to craft this "last-minute" advantage? Did Mockus really ever have a chance?

After the first-round election, there seemed to be a profound sense of public disillusionment all over Bogotá and other major cities; Mockus's supporters were in disbelief. But even though the grief seemed to be generalized, somehow almost half of the voters had supported Santos and now he had a clear lead.

In truth, despite appearances, the disappointment that followed the first election was restricted to the higher social rungs of Colombian urban society. Santos, who offers a continuity of Uribe’s strong “security first” policies, represents a disenchanting choice for all those who, although grateful for the improvements Colombia underwent under Uribe, are thirsty for change. For Mockus’s supporters, Santos represents yet another elite politician besmirched by scandals who is willing to use any means, however detrimental, to achieve his goals. Mockus, on the other hand, ran on a platform of post-modern promises: strengthening institutions, upholding the rule of law, improving the quality of life of citizens and, above all, respecting human rights and the value of all human lives. His beautifully-colored, star-studded campaign created a lot of hype and momentum, but in the end his supporters were simply not enough.

Ultimately the vast majority of Colombians supported Santos because he offered them the things that they understand and want, namely security and jobs, not some vague ideas about a brighter future. The disappointment in Bogotá was visible and strong because it is the home of the upper-class elites, not because the whole country was actually agonizing over the loss. The reality of Colombia is that it is simply not a post-modern society and although there is certainly a large upper and upper-middle class that can appreciate those values, there are many more people within the middle and lower classes that are still more preoccupied with their survival than with abstract principles and beliefs. In Colombia, survival has an economic sense to it, but for most people it is first and foremost a matter of security. Many people might have therefore felt galvanized by Mockus’s campaign and his rhetoric, but at the end of the day, they simply were not able to make the philosophical leap. And so, as some would say, Colombians sold their soul to the Devil in order to keep the status quo.

At the end of the day, the results are disappointing for those who would like to see Colombia continue to grow politically, socially and economically. President Uribe concentrated his efforts in keeping Colombia safe (particularly in the cities) and this newfound security certainly brought about an unprecedented economic transformation; whereas no one would have dared to invest in Colombia in the late 1990s, during Uribe’s presidency investors from within and abroad rushed in to open up banks, construct new buildings, extract minerals and, most surprisingly, bet on tourism in Colombia. Nonetheless, what most supporters of Uribe are not willing to recognize is that having obtained security in the country has simply raised Colombia’s prospects to where they should have been without conflict and war. Uribe closed the security gap between Colombia and its neighbors, but it is not clear whether a continuation of those policies will yield the necessary economic results that Colombia needs to maintain the fragile social equilibrium that is currently keeping the peace in this historically volatile nation.

That said, there is nothing to do for now, as the results would not have been any other way this time around. Until Colombians are not, as a whole, a society that upholds the values of good governance, strong institutions and economic prosperity and equality, it is simply unfitting to expect political leaders with such values to rise and to end up in Palacio de Nariño. And Colombians won’t achieve that society until they can stop worrying about the basics. At any given time, every nation simply gets the leadership it deserves.

For now, the only green we’ll see in Colombia is the color of its mountains and prairies...at least until the summer rolls around.